A Probability Demo

URL: https://barryhisblog.blogspot.com/p/probability-emo.html

Creationist anti-evolution and anti-abiogenesis probability 'arguments' come up with boringly tedious regularity. Why creationists cannot have enough faith to believe that their "God" could create a world in which the earth and the waters could bring forth life as Genesis 1 has it, is beyond me. Their faith is not strong enough, I suppose, and they have to believe in magic.

They often quote a huge number, claiming that this is the probability of a certain protein or gene forming "at random". Well, I'm a formally qualified and experienced mathematics teacher, and I will repeat what my own teachers used to growl at me, "SHOW YOUR WORKING", which, of course, creationists never do, because they cannot, and they are averse to work anyway. 

In addition, quoting just a Big Scary Number™, as creationists often do, betrays complete innumeracy. Probabilities are expressed in ratios or fractions. Expressed as a fraction, a probability can only range between zero (never gonna happen) to one (certain to happen).  

My program illustrates a fallacy, that a bunch of mutations (or a string of amino acids) can come about only by a probability so infinitesimally small that it can safely be discounted as ever being possible.

The fallacy is based on a simple misapplication of probability theory, where the probability of a bunch of events is assumed to be the product of the probabilities of each individual event. Pascal (a pioneer in formulating probability theory) will be turning in his grave. The other, related fallacy, very common among naïve creationists, is that evolution is purely "random", "accidental" or a matter of "chance". This is false, and if knowingly spread, a lie. I'm sure that Jesus would be proud.

For example, if we consider five mutations, each with the probability of occurring of 1/100, then the probability of all of them happening, according to the fallacy, is
1/100 x 1/100 x 1/100 x 1/100 x 1/100 = 1/10,000,000,000 (one in ten billion).

In other words, we'd need 10 billion trials, on average, to get 5 mutations.

Why is this a fallacy? Because the calculation is only valid for totally independent events.

In other situations, the events are not independent. Here, we have a population of 100 "creatures", each with 5 elements that may mutate with a 1/100 chance upon reproduction. Each mutation is advantageous.

A creature with advantageous mutations is more likely to reproduce more. (The biological definition of "reproductively advantageous".)

Each generation is represented by a set of numbers. Each number represents a creature. 
The value of the number is the number of mutations it possesses.

See how many trials it takes to get our "one in 10 billion" chance of 5 mutations!

Click refresh/reload to re-run the simulation from my page as many times as you wish. The source code for the simulation can be found here, @ https://barryhisblog.blogspot.com/p/script-language-javascript-type.html

Related articles.

The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy, when creationists and Unidentifiable Flying Intelligent Designer spotters start talking about probability. https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/the-texas-sharpshooter

The Failures of Mathematical Anti -Evolutionism https://skepticalinquirer.org/2022/05/the-failures-of-mathematical-anti-evolutionism/

Do probability arguments refute evolution? https://www.sciencemeetsreligion.org/evolution/probability.php

Big scary number theory. https://barryhisblog.blogspot.com/p/calculating-protein-probability.html

https://ncse.ngo/creationism-and-pseudomathematics

Nota Bene: This is an argument, not from "evolutionist" science, but from mathematics, which cannot be gainsaid unless a fault in the mathematics can be found and proved.

Generation=1 Trials=100
10001000100000000000000000000000000000000000010000
00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
Generation=2 Trials=200
11111111100000000000000001000000000000101000000000
10000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
Generation=3 Trials=300
11111111111111111121111111000001000000000000000000
00000000000001000000000000000000000001000000000000
Generation=4 Trials=400
22111101112111111111112111100000200000000010000000
00000000000000100000000000000000000010100000000000
Generation=5 Trials=500
22222222221111111111112110111111100000000000000100
00100000100000000001000000000001000000000101001000
Generation=6 Trials=600
22222222222222222222221111111111111101111111000000
00000000100001000001000000000010000000000010000000
Generation=7 Trials=700
22222222221222221222222222222222222222222232111111
11111111011111110000010000100011010200000201000000
Generation=8 Trials=800
32222222222212222212222222222222222222222222211121
01211111101111111000001000010001101021000020100000
Generation=9 Trials=900
33222222222221222221222222222222222222222222221112
10121121110111111100010100001000110102200002010000
Generation=10 Trials=1000
33332222222212212222212222222222222222323232212211
12101212211102111121000101000011001101022000020200
Generation=11 Trials=1100
34333333333333222222221221222221222222222222222222
22122111210122221110211112200010100001100110102200
Generation=12 Trials=1200
44333333323333312222222112122222122222222322222212
22111211121012232112021211220001010000110011010220
Generation=13 Trials=1300
54443233333233333122222221121232221222222223222222
12221112111210122321120212112200010100002100110102